I was at my book group gathering last weekend and we were talking about the Presidential election. The topic of the Bradley Effect came up. It refers to discrepancies between what samples of people say they will do in polls (or in the case of exit polls what they have done) and the actual outcome of an election. In the 1982 California gubernatorial race, Tom Bradley (an African-American) was the projected winner based upon both pre-election and exit polling. But the newspapers had to stop the presses when George Deukmejian was ultimately declared the winner.There have been other examples of the effect over the years in various mayoral and Senate races but this is the first time it’ll be put to the test on the level of the highest office in the land. As I write this, the Obama ticket has a composite of around a 5.1 point lead over McCain-Palin.
Will the Bradley Effect eat into this margin (assuming it holds) and make it a closer race than what many expect? Or are there valid counterarguments to Bradley, such as the notion that pollsters are predominately asking questions of people who have only land line phones and ignoring those with only cell phones (assuming that those cell-phoners would be younger voters and more apt to vote for Obama)?
I’m not sure what the answer to that is, but there’s no doubt in my mind that there’s enough covert racism in this country to make things interesting. I keep going back to a conversation I had with a family member a few weeks ago. This individual stated that some voters might say one thing in a poll but when it came time to actually cast a ballot “they won’t vote for a ni**er”.
Although I’ve grown to despise that particular word with the asterisks in the middle, I think that this person raised a valid (albeit sad) point, as we still have a long way to go in this country in so many respects.
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Any thoughts?
15 comments:
Let me enter the dark world of conspiracies for a moment and suggest that the Bradley effect would be a convenient explanation for polling discrepancies should the Republicans manage to steal the election.
I suspect that the country would get along just fine without any polls at all. I've implied this before, but now I'll come right out and say it: numbers can't be trusted!
I agree that numbers in and of themselves cannot (and should not) be trusted. At least not completely. For me, the trust factor is imbedded within the integrity and objectivity of the process in which the numbers are derived; and also the intent of the owner(or sponsor) of the data. Unfortunately that seems to be what trips things up with the lion's share of what we are told is truth.
"Truth" is a pretty tricky idea. I don't know what "truth" was like back when that Plato fella was alive, but these days it seems to be a pretty flexible concept. How can you know the objectivity of a process or the intent of a sponsor? Or, even better, how can you know these things without a lot of effort? Or, better yet, do we even need to know these things?
Indeed, there have been billions of words and countless PhD programs wrapped around what "truth", "ethics" and "morals" represent. It's my belief that we all attach our own criteria and operational definition to those terms based on our life experiences. And more often than not, it tends to be an approximation. How good is good enough? What are your specification limits? What are you willing to live with? And as you alluded to, how much effort are you willing to expend to realize an improvement? Hell, I don't know.
I'm far from being an expert in predicting what human behavior will be based on a particular set of circumstances, but I am curious as to whether or not history will repeat itself on a larger scale in this particular election. And beyond that, what factors will we attribute to its outcome? How will we react to its result?
To paraphrase a Chinese curse, "we're living in interesting times".
Oh Lord, conspiracy theory even before the election... Folks, have you ever seen a famous photograph of Harry Truman holding up a newspaper with a really big headline that said "Dewey Wins"? That was way back in the age of the troglodytes, and was also due to a misinterpretation or at least a presumptuous interpretation of polling data. There wasn't any "color" in that race, but when Bradley came along, the race card conspiracy theory was played. Funny.
Some more things that make me go hmmmm....bowlingwidow, why do you suggest that should the Republicans win this election (I doubt they will, BTW) that they will have "stolen" the election. So if the Dems win the election, they will have won fair and square and on the up and up and stand up and salute the flag and pass the apple pie and thank you ma'am, but if those dirty low life Republicans come out on top, it will be because of skullduggery and treason? Is this anticipatory conspiracy theory being postulated just in case? Funny.
I suppose I have to take exception also to the statement that numbers can't be trusted. (Might as well offend everyone while I'm here, even though I'm sure Joe is as nice a person as are BowlingJoe and bowlingwidow.) Math is the one truth you can take to the bank. People who manipulate numbers (statisticians and lawyers come to mind) are the ones you cannot trust. The numbers in and of themselves are pure as driven snow, but devious people massage them and ask carefully posed questions (Do you still beat your wife? -- and you must answer yes or no as they are the only choices.) Data can be collected with clear bias, or in less than entirety in order to give the illusion that numbers are wrong -- but blame the pollsters, not the numbers. Shucks, I'll bet I could take a poll of Washington state residents that would "prove" statistically that McCain/Palin are the standout favorites in the state. Of course, I'd take the poll somewhere east of Snoqualmie Pass.
I had a feeling it was just a matter of time before I heard from cvow. When it comes to matters of statistics and data, I can only compare it to what happens when you pull a string of yarn in front of cat: he can't NOT make a play for the yarn.
And I'm glad. Although cvow and I come from different backgrounds and have conflicting notions as to what constitutes something that resembles an ideal state, I've always appreciated the fact that the steps he takes to get to his position are always well thought out. But since he's a Six Sigma Master Blackbelt, I've come to expect that.
The Bradley Effect was something that kept coming up in conversations I've had with a number of people who have very different political points of view over the last month. I'll be honest in saying that I had no idea what the Bradley Effect even was before this summer.
Given the climate in the 70s and 80s and the outcome of several elections, I believe that there is historical validity to Bradley. Things (at least on the surface)seemed a lot simpler in those days. But then there were fewer cameras and news outlets, too, so it was easier to get away with clandestine deeds.
That's why I asked the question. Yes, racism exists. In some parts of the country more than others. But what other factors are there that might contribute to an arguement that suggests a reverse-Bradley effect? Are people voting for Obama to make up for our treatment of minorities over the years? I don't know. In my opinion it'll probably be a dog's breakfast of theories in an historical election that'll be discussed for decades and perhaps centuries (should we survive).
Damn, I knew I should have stuck with writing about bowling and hot sauces.
By the way, cvow, I really did think your "Snoqualmie Pass" last sentence was brilliant.
Hey Bowling Joe, this seems as good a place as any to mention the new John Martyn bio out now, "Some People Are Crazy". I ordered myself a copy from the bookstore I moonlight at, but every warehouse was out with no plans to reorder. Typical John luck.
David,
Thanks for mentioning that. You can mention Martyn any time with me. I didn't know about the book and it will give me a challenge now to find it. I'll tell Steven, Robert and Tim as well since they're all big Martyn fans.
Martyn just played NYC last weekend and here's the NY Times review in case you didn't catch it
By JON PARELES
Published: October 10, 2008
In the late 1960s it was a novel, far-reaching idea when folk-rooted guitarists in the United States and England began toying with the harmonies and syncopations of jazz. (Now such hybrids are taken for granted in the music of Norah Jones or Grizzly Bear.) One of the most idiosyncratic British innovators, the 60-year-old Scottish guitarist, singer and songwriter John Martyn, made his first New York appearance in more than a decade with a brief yet heartening set at Joe’s Pub on Thursday night. He was accompanied by a frequent collaborator: Danny Thompson, the bassist best known as a member of Pentangle.
Mr. Martyn’s style, which has lately been revived by the college-radio favorite José González, mingles the modes of traditional Celtic songs, jazz chords, rural-blues fingerpicking, the otherworldly singing of Billie Holiday and the bluesman Skip James, a fondness for electronics like the Echoplex and, from the 1970s on, a touch of reggae. In his music, steady, precise, tightly wound yet eccentric guitar vamps — with chords and single notes ricocheting from off-beats — support waywardly improvisational vocals that are crooned with honeyed introspection or burred with a rasp.
Mr. Martyn’s own songs, among them “May You Never” (which Eric Clapton also recorded), juxtapose benevolent wishes with an awareness of darkness. Although he has made albums since 1967, releasing his most recent studio effort in 2004, Mr. Martyn’s “Solid Air,” from 1973, was his indelible moment in British rock: meditative and earthy, pensive and luminous. Mr. Thompson also played on that album, which supplied most of the set’s songs.
Mr. Martyn performed in a wheelchair. Infection from an injury led to the amputation of his right leg below the knee in 2004, and one reason he was visiting New York was to get a new prosthesis. He joked, gruffly, that he is now a “living leg end,” and at times he seemed to be in pain.
But when he played, his music was intact. He picked taut, spiraling triplets in “The Easy Blues,” stretched and teased the vocal phrases of “May You Never” and “Solid Air” toward abstraction, and played hide-and-seek with the beat amid the Echoplexed layers of “Big Muff.”
Mr. Thompson was a full partner. He pinned down the harmonies, slipped contrapuntal lines into the spaces between guitar chords, answered and prodded Mr. Martyn’s voice. He brought something like a Bo Diddley beat to Skip James’s “I’d Rather Be the Devil,” while Mr. Martyn topped echoing guitar chords with lead lines that darted toward polytonality. The songs reached inward, becoming mantras of sorrow and hope, reflection and longing, acknowledging but not yielding to the toll of the years.
We tragically still live in a racist nation. Despite what the polls say, I fear this will be a closer election than the numbers show. Remember New Hampshire.
Even with a lead that approaches double digits by some accounts, I'm still nervous. I absolutely expect the GOP to pull out all the stops and do some really nutty things in the next week and a half. They were sure all over the campaign worker who had a backwards "B" marked on her face until she was arrested for filing a false police report. McCain even called her up personally before the cops turned the tables on her.
But as long as Sarah Palin is out there telling our youth that the VP is in charge of the Senate, it makes me think that just maybe the right team will get elected this time.
Don't worry too much Bowlingjoe. There's always a silver lining, and if the GOP pulls ahead and steals the election, we can look forward to 4 more years of hilarious antics. Think of all the laughs we've gotten from George and Dick the past 8 years, and imagine how farming funny it'll be with John & Sarah. We can't lose!
Thanks, Joe. I'll be laughing my way to either Sweden or Canada.
Sweden or Canada? What's wrong with Norway? I have been listening to the news this weekend, and even here in Bergen they are talking about the Bradley Effect! Operators on the shop floor from all over the world are saying things like, "This is the first time I've paid attention to American politics." Every single person who has stated an opinion is for Obama. This weekend I visited a sort of a group home, and even there, they were talking about the election. One of the guys there told me that Der Spiegel had a top story that was congratulating George Bush on wrecking America's economy and reputation in just 8 years. They said it was quite an impressive achievement.
Thanks for commenting, Pilla. Nothing wrong with Norway. Or Finland for that matter. That's where my great-grandfather was from.
The damage Bush has done on so many levels in the last 8 years is incredible. Even if Obama does get elected it will take a long time to repair.
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